Neil Lancastle
Laissez-faire economics won't save us from COVID-2050
(Fri, 13 Mar 2020)
A laissez-faire approach to coronavirus, no matter how much we get nudged - individual responsibility to wash our hands, avoid planes and public transport, and self-isolate - will not stop the spread of the virus. What the economy needs is not words, but a strong, fiscal response to supply the physical assets that we need to push this virus back. In those terms, the recent UK budget was not
>> Read More
Using Bloomberg From R and Excel (Thu, 07 Dec 2017)
Bloomberg from R First, you need to be logged on to Bloomberg. If the Bloomberg/Excel add-in does not work, then: 1. Close Excel and/or R 2. Keep Bloomberg running 3. Go to Start-> Bloomberg -> API Environment Diagnostics 4. Click Start when the Bloomberg API Diagnostics window has loaded 5. If a “Login to wintrv…” message below then pops up, this occurs when Bloomberg isn’t open – it is
>> Read More
Ukraine's path to prosperity (Mon, 25 Sep 2017)
You can get an Uber in Ukraine. Investment is more difficult, because borrowing in local currency (Hryvnia) is expensive. The official interest rate is 12.5%, local currency mortgages cost around 20% and credit cards cost around 40%. To borrow more cheaply, many households took out USD mortgages prior to the Global Financial Crisis but, when the Hryvnia collapsed, these became unmanageable.
>> Read More
Infrastructure activism (Wed, 25 Jan 2017)
The highlight of the inaugral NEKS conference was to hear Sir Vince Cable talking about Theresa May's industrial strategy, which he describe as a 'rebranding [of the 2011 strategy] with some good new features'. He reminded us that the UK abandoned interventionist policies in 1979, a state that remained until Mandelson's car scrappage scheme in April 2009, followed by support for the UK aerospace
>> Read More
Pluralism since the ‘1992 Plea’ in the AER (Wed, 27 Apr 2016)
First published on the Rethinking Economics Blog, March 12th 2014 In May 1992, a ‘Plea for a Pluralistic and Rigorous Economics’ was published in the American Economic Review (Vol 82 No. 2). It was signed by Harcourt, Galbraith, Goodwin, Kindelberger, Minsky, Pasinetti and other eminent economists. The Plea was funded by FEED who launched a second ‘Plea’ in 2009 and support the 2012 ‘
>> Read More
Black holes and free lunches (Fri, 08 Apr 2016)
This is a response to a blog post and Twitter chat about the persistence of UK and US current accounts deficits. It's a hot topic: see Frances Coppola. The worst case scenario is generally assumed to be capital flight and devaluation: a return to the summer of 1976 when Callaghan went to the IMF for a loan. This post is an attempt to dig a little deeper, and address the politics and ethics:
>> Read More
Hinkley Point C: who benefits? (Wed, 21 Oct 2015)
Since mid-2013 I have made about ninety edits to the Wikipedia page for Hinkley Point C. It's personal: I was born in Taunton and my parents live about ten miles from the site. Most edits relate to the economics of the project. I also use Hinkley Point C in my corporate finance lectures to discuss uncertainty, discounting and risk. The figures below use discounting* to estimate different
>> Read More
Liberté, égalité, fraternité (Tue, 23 Jun 2015)
This is a short(ish) review of the INET Paris Conference (8-11 April 2015 at the OECD). INET announced that Clive Cowdrey, of the Resolution Foundation, has joined their Governing Board. To get an idea what this means for INET, watch his speech about inequality at the Opening Plenary here (32:45 to 41:50). My personal opinion is that INET are sucessfully challenging the orthodoxy. At times,
>> Read More
"We should all be pluralist now" (Tue, 16 Jun 2015)
At the first QAA meeting to discuss the UK economics curriculum, a senior academic said that "we should all be pluralist now". After 15 months, the review of standards against which UK degrees are peer reviewed is drawing to a close. The revised subject benchmark statement for economics (SBSE) will be published this summer, in time for the 2015-16 academic year. During the consultation, I
>> Read More
The Boom Bust Boys (Mon, 23 Mar 2015)
I've seen the new film Boom Bust Boom at two private views: with an audience at De Montfort University and again at SOAS: there was a third private view as part of the excellent INET 2015 Conference "Liberté, égalité, fragilité" (blog post to follow). The film is great fun... an overview of a Minskian alternative to neoclassical economics, the debate about reforming economics education, and a
>> Read More
It's out! The revised UK economics curriculum (Sat, 31 Jan 2015)
Update 4/12/2015 There was a final review meeting on 1st June 2015, after this Blog post was written. My summary of these discussions is available here. Some changes were accepted in the final version of the SBSE, available here, in particular: The phrases 'due to observational equivalence' and 'methodology of science' were dropped Different methodological approaches are 'understood' rather
>> Read More
UK economics curriculum: an open reply to the QAA (Mon, 14 Jul 2014)
To: The Quality Assurance Agency for Higher Education Southgate House Southgate Street Gloucester GL1 1UB 15th July 2014 (revised 31 July) Thank you for the opportunity to suggest further changes to the QAA subject benchmark statement in economics (SBSE). I think the draft needs significant further work for four reasons: repetition; insufficient critical and open thinking; insufficient
>> Read More
There are alternatives (Wed, 11 Jun 2014)
More on the lack of public support from CORE for the student letter, calling for 'more open, diverse and pluralist economics'. However,the student letter has been signed by a diverse group of academics and economists (see below). This was sent to the FT on 3rd June but not published, hence the Blog. Sir, Dr Alvin Birdi’s hope that the CORE curriculum will ‘prioritise empirically
>> Read More
Spinning from the CORE (Wed, 28 May 2014)
What have the CORE steering group and the ISIPE student letter got in common? The short answer: nothing. If you scan the list of supporters (last scan, 5th October 2014) you find that not a single steering group member has publicly supported the ISIPE call for 'a more open, diverse and pluralist economics'. Some of us have received private messages of support, but it would be fantastic if
>> Read More
Campaigning for the long-run at the Post-Crash fringe (Wed, 09 Apr 2014)
The fantastic Post-Crash Manchester held a fringe event to the Royal Economic Society (RES) conference. What better than a discussion between Victoria Chick and Diane Coyle? We heard their very different views on pluralism, on the openness of the RES and other institutional barriers to change. For Diane Coyle, the problems are a 'gap' between between research and the curriculum, and a 'gap'
>> Read More
Avoiding bubbles with pooled funds (Sat, 04 Jan 2014)
There's a simple formula which shows how a speculative bubble can grow. With present value (P) and a positive rate of return (r) to time (t) the value of the annuity (A) rises exponentially: With a negative return the bubble tends towards zero. Since balance sheets have both assets and liabilities, there are four possible bubbles and anti-bubbles: Financial Crisis Observatory (
>> Read More
How to start a crypto-bank run (Sat, 07 Dec 2013)
First published 7th December 2013 Updated 7th December 2017 A friend who is a crypto-currency evangelist gave me a Bitcoin a few years ago, which I jokingly accepted as a 'store of value'. When I heard, in 2013, that China was banning direct trade in Bitcoins, I suggested my friend cashed in on the basis it was a bubble*. He didn't. For a while I rolled the crypto-dice: my gains were enough to
>> Read More
Are there policy alternatives to Ireland's austerity? (Wed, 20 Nov 2013)
This is a response to the PKSG presentation by Stephen Kinsella on 19th November 2013. In essence, the stock-flow-consistent approach is ‘to a very large extent an exercise in accountancy – or perhaps logic is a more congenial word’ (Godley, 1983). The paper by Stephen Kinsella extends this approach with a five sector model, estimated using OLS. Applying different spending and tax shocks, he
>> Read More
India's 'liquidity call' (Tue, 12 Nov 2013)
What is the Reserve Bank of India up to? On Perry Mehrlings MOOC on the 'Economics of Money and Banking', the students are (quite rightly) asking why interest rates were rising. So while the Fed, ECB, Band of Japan and Bank of England continue with their 'liquidity put' to the international banking system, the Reserve Bank of India is doing the opposite: a 'liquidity call'. I'm hopeful that
>> Read More
Mathematics for New Economic Thinking (Mon, 04 Nov 2013)
Last week, INET and the Fields Institute brought together economists and mathematicians in Toronto. The results were certainly interesting... with several economists paying their homage to Wynne Godley, including Stephanie Kelton, Marc Lavoie, Peter Skott and Randall Wray. It was interesting to see these economists play the same stage. Some speakers felt that bad economics had tainted
>> Read More
Should Barclays borrow more without conditions? (Tue, 30 Jul 2013)
Would you unconditionally invest billions more in Barclays, knowing your equity was at risk and your loan would not be re-paid if the bank got into trouble? Since you get all of the downside, what return would you be looking for? 5%? 8%? Would you want the 14% that was given to Abu Dhabi and Qatar investors in 2008... a deal that is apparently under investigation by both the Serious Fraud Office
>> Read More
A laissez-faire approach to coronavirus, no matter how much we get nudged - individual responsibility to wash our hands, avoid planes and public transport, and self-isolate - will not stop the spread of the virus. What the economy needs is not words, but a strong, fiscal response to supply the physical assets that we need to push this virus back. In those terms, the recent UK budget was not
>> Read More
Using Bloomberg From R and Excel (Thu, 07 Dec 2017)
Bloomberg from R First, you need to be logged on to Bloomberg. If the Bloomberg/Excel add-in does not work, then: 1. Close Excel and/or R 2. Keep Bloomberg running 3. Go to Start-> Bloomberg -> API Environment Diagnostics 4. Click Start when the Bloomberg API Diagnostics window has loaded 5. If a “Login to wintrv…” message below then pops up, this occurs when Bloomberg isn’t open – it is
>> Read More
Ukraine's path to prosperity (Mon, 25 Sep 2017)
You can get an Uber in Ukraine. Investment is more difficult, because borrowing in local currency (Hryvnia) is expensive. The official interest rate is 12.5%, local currency mortgages cost around 20% and credit cards cost around 40%. To borrow more cheaply, many households took out USD mortgages prior to the Global Financial Crisis but, when the Hryvnia collapsed, these became unmanageable.
>> Read More
Infrastructure activism (Wed, 25 Jan 2017)
The highlight of the inaugral NEKS conference was to hear Sir Vince Cable talking about Theresa May's industrial strategy, which he describe as a 'rebranding [of the 2011 strategy] with some good new features'. He reminded us that the UK abandoned interventionist policies in 1979, a state that remained until Mandelson's car scrappage scheme in April 2009, followed by support for the UK aerospace
>> Read More
Pluralism since the ‘1992 Plea’ in the AER (Wed, 27 Apr 2016)
First published on the Rethinking Economics Blog, March 12th 2014 In May 1992, a ‘Plea for a Pluralistic and Rigorous Economics’ was published in the American Economic Review (Vol 82 No. 2). It was signed by Harcourt, Galbraith, Goodwin, Kindelberger, Minsky, Pasinetti and other eminent economists. The Plea was funded by FEED who launched a second ‘Plea’ in 2009 and support the 2012 ‘
>> Read More
Black holes and free lunches (Fri, 08 Apr 2016)
This is a response to a blog post and Twitter chat about the persistence of UK and US current accounts deficits. It's a hot topic: see Frances Coppola. The worst case scenario is generally assumed to be capital flight and devaluation: a return to the summer of 1976 when Callaghan went to the IMF for a loan. This post is an attempt to dig a little deeper, and address the politics and ethics:
>> Read More
Hinkley Point C: who benefits? (Wed, 21 Oct 2015)
Since mid-2013 I have made about ninety edits to the Wikipedia page for Hinkley Point C. It's personal: I was born in Taunton and my parents live about ten miles from the site. Most edits relate to the economics of the project. I also use Hinkley Point C in my corporate finance lectures to discuss uncertainty, discounting and risk. The figures below use discounting* to estimate different
>> Read More
Liberté, égalité, fraternité (Tue, 23 Jun 2015)
This is a short(ish) review of the INET Paris Conference (8-11 April 2015 at the OECD). INET announced that Clive Cowdrey, of the Resolution Foundation, has joined their Governing Board. To get an idea what this means for INET, watch his speech about inequality at the Opening Plenary here (32:45 to 41:50). My personal opinion is that INET are sucessfully challenging the orthodoxy. At times,
>> Read More
"We should all be pluralist now" (Tue, 16 Jun 2015)
At the first QAA meeting to discuss the UK economics curriculum, a senior academic said that "we should all be pluralist now". After 15 months, the review of standards against which UK degrees are peer reviewed is drawing to a close. The revised subject benchmark statement for economics (SBSE) will be published this summer, in time for the 2015-16 academic year. During the consultation, I
>> Read More
The Boom Bust Boys (Mon, 23 Mar 2015)
I've seen the new film Boom Bust Boom at two private views: with an audience at De Montfort University and again at SOAS: there was a third private view as part of the excellent INET 2015 Conference "Liberté, égalité, fragilité" (blog post to follow). The film is great fun... an overview of a Minskian alternative to neoclassical economics, the debate about reforming economics education, and a
>> Read More
It's out! The revised UK economics curriculum (Sat, 31 Jan 2015)
Update 4/12/2015 There was a final review meeting on 1st June 2015, after this Blog post was written. My summary of these discussions is available here. Some changes were accepted in the final version of the SBSE, available here, in particular: The phrases 'due to observational equivalence' and 'methodology of science' were dropped Different methodological approaches are 'understood' rather
>> Read More
UK economics curriculum: an open reply to the QAA (Mon, 14 Jul 2014)
To: The Quality Assurance Agency for Higher Education Southgate House Southgate Street Gloucester GL1 1UB 15th July 2014 (revised 31 July) Thank you for the opportunity to suggest further changes to the QAA subject benchmark statement in economics (SBSE). I think the draft needs significant further work for four reasons: repetition; insufficient critical and open thinking; insufficient
>> Read More
There are alternatives (Wed, 11 Jun 2014)
More on the lack of public support from CORE for the student letter, calling for 'more open, diverse and pluralist economics'. However,the student letter has been signed by a diverse group of academics and economists (see below). This was sent to the FT on 3rd June but not published, hence the Blog. Sir, Dr Alvin Birdi’s hope that the CORE curriculum will ‘prioritise empirically
>> Read More
Spinning from the CORE (Wed, 28 May 2014)
What have the CORE steering group and the ISIPE student letter got in common? The short answer: nothing. If you scan the list of supporters (last scan, 5th October 2014) you find that not a single steering group member has publicly supported the ISIPE call for 'a more open, diverse and pluralist economics'. Some of us have received private messages of support, but it would be fantastic if
>> Read More
Campaigning for the long-run at the Post-Crash fringe (Wed, 09 Apr 2014)
The fantastic Post-Crash Manchester held a fringe event to the Royal Economic Society (RES) conference. What better than a discussion between Victoria Chick and Diane Coyle? We heard their very different views on pluralism, on the openness of the RES and other institutional barriers to change. For Diane Coyle, the problems are a 'gap' between between research and the curriculum, and a 'gap'
>> Read More
Avoiding bubbles with pooled funds (Sat, 04 Jan 2014)
There's a simple formula which shows how a speculative bubble can grow. With present value (P) and a positive rate of return (r) to time (t) the value of the annuity (A) rises exponentially: With a negative return the bubble tends towards zero. Since balance sheets have both assets and liabilities, there are four possible bubbles and anti-bubbles: Financial Crisis Observatory (
>> Read More
How to start a crypto-bank run (Sat, 07 Dec 2013)
First published 7th December 2013 Updated 7th December 2017 A friend who is a crypto-currency evangelist gave me a Bitcoin a few years ago, which I jokingly accepted as a 'store of value'. When I heard, in 2013, that China was banning direct trade in Bitcoins, I suggested my friend cashed in on the basis it was a bubble*. He didn't. For a while I rolled the crypto-dice: my gains were enough to
>> Read More
Are there policy alternatives to Ireland's austerity? (Wed, 20 Nov 2013)
This is a response to the PKSG presentation by Stephen Kinsella on 19th November 2013. In essence, the stock-flow-consistent approach is ‘to a very large extent an exercise in accountancy – or perhaps logic is a more congenial word’ (Godley, 1983). The paper by Stephen Kinsella extends this approach with a five sector model, estimated using OLS. Applying different spending and tax shocks, he
>> Read More
India's 'liquidity call' (Tue, 12 Nov 2013)
What is the Reserve Bank of India up to? On Perry Mehrlings MOOC on the 'Economics of Money and Banking', the students are (quite rightly) asking why interest rates were rising. So while the Fed, ECB, Band of Japan and Bank of England continue with their 'liquidity put' to the international banking system, the Reserve Bank of India is doing the opposite: a 'liquidity call'. I'm hopeful that
>> Read More
Mathematics for New Economic Thinking (Mon, 04 Nov 2013)
Last week, INET and the Fields Institute brought together economists and mathematicians in Toronto. The results were certainly interesting... with several economists paying their homage to Wynne Godley, including Stephanie Kelton, Marc Lavoie, Peter Skott and Randall Wray. It was interesting to see these economists play the same stage. Some speakers felt that bad economics had tainted
>> Read More
Should Barclays borrow more without conditions? (Tue, 30 Jul 2013)
Would you unconditionally invest billions more in Barclays, knowing your equity was at risk and your loan would not be re-paid if the bank got into trouble? Since you get all of the downside, what return would you be looking for? 5%? 8%? Would you want the 14% that was given to Abu Dhabi and Qatar investors in 2008... a deal that is apparently under investigation by both the Serious Fraud Office
>> Read More